Phenology chains
Visible terrestrial events (blossom, leaf-out, flowering) are proxies for the same environmental drivers that trigger invisible aquatic events (hatches, pondweed growth, spawning). When you log an observation of any event in a chain, downstream events get predicted forwards by the typical lag. Refines per-venue as your dataset grows.
flowchart LR
bloodworm_emergence["Chironomid (bloodworm) main emergence"] -->|28d| perch_spawn["Perch spawning"]
mayfly_danica["Mayfly main hatch"] -->|14d| tench_spawn["Tench spawning"]
canadian_pondweed_grow["Canadian pondweed growth resumes"] -->|21d| bloodworm_emergence["Chironomid (bloodworm) main emergence"]
marsh_marigold["Marsh marigold flowering"] -->|14d| tadpole_emerge["Tadpole emergence from spawn"]
swift_arrive["Swifts arrive"] -->|21d| mayfly_danica["Mayfly main hatch"]
blackberry_ripe["Blackberries ripe"] -->|14d| daddy_longlegs["Crane fly / daddy-long-legs"]
blackthorn["Blackthorn blossom"] -->|28d| hawthorn_blossom["Hawthorn (May) blossom"]
cherry_plum["Cherry plum blossom"] -->|10d| phantom_midge["Phantom midge"]
common_comfrey["Common comfrey flowering"] -->|0d| damselfly_emergence["Damselfly emergence (mixed spp.)"]
conker_fall["Conkers fall"] -->|28d| trout_spawn["Brown trout spawning"]
daffodil["Daffodil flowering"] -->|14d| canadian_pondweed_grow["Canadian pondweed growth resumes"]
elder_flower["Elder flower"] -->|0d| damselfly_emergence["Damselfly emergence (mixed spp.)"]
foxglove["Foxglove flowering"] -->|7d| caenis["Caenis 'angler's curse'"]
hawthorn_blossom["Hawthorn (May) blossom"] -->|0d| hawthorn_fly["Hawthorn fly"]
hawthorn_blossom["Hawthorn (May) blossom"] -->|21d| mayfly_danica["Mayfly main hatch"]
snowdrop["Snowdrop flowering"] -->|21d| frog_spawn["Frog spawn"]
class bloodworm_emergence cat-aquatic_insect
class perch_spawn cat-fish_behaviour
class mayfly_danica cat-aquatic_insect
class tench_spawn cat-fish_behaviour
class canadian_pondweed_grow cat-aquatic_plant
class bloodworm_emergence cat-aquatic_insect
class marsh_marigold cat-aquatic_plant
class tadpole_emerge cat-amphibian
class swift_arrive cat-bird
class mayfly_danica cat-aquatic_insect
class blackberry_ripe cat-terrestrial_flora
class daddy_longlegs cat-aquatic_insect
class blackthorn cat-terrestrial_flora
class hawthorn_blossom cat-terrestrial_flora
class cherry_plum cat-terrestrial_flora
class phantom_midge cat-aquatic_insect
class common_comfrey cat-terrestrial_flora
class damselfly_emergence cat-aquatic_insect
class conker_fall cat-terrestrial_flora
class trout_spawn cat-fish_behaviour
class daffodil cat-terrestrial_flora
class canadian_pondweed_grow cat-aquatic_plant
class elder_flower cat-terrestrial_flora
class damselfly_emergence cat-aquatic_insect
class foxglove cat-terrestrial_flora
class caenis cat-aquatic_insect
class hawthorn_blossom cat-terrestrial_flora
class hawthorn_fly cat-aquatic_insect
class hawthorn_blossom cat-terrestrial_flora
class mayfly_danica cat-aquatic_insect
class snowdrop cat-terrestrial_flora
class frog_spawn cat-amphibian
classDef cat-aquatic_insect fill:#fff7ed,stroke:#b45309,color:#7c2d12
classDef cat-aquatic_plant fill:#ecfdf5,stroke:#047857,color:#064e3b
classDef cat-fish_behaviour fill:#dbeafe,stroke:#1d4ed8,color:#1e3a8a
classDef cat-amphibian fill:#dcfce7,stroke:#15803d,color:#14532d
classDef cat-terrestrial_flora fill:#fef3c7,stroke:#a16207,color:#713f12
classDef cat-bird fill:#fce7f3,stroke:#be185d,color:#831843
All chain edges (16)
| From | To | Typical lag | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chironomid (bloodworm) main emergence | Perch spawning | 28d | 21 โ 40d |
| Mayfly main hatch | Tench spawning | 14d | 7 โ 28d |
| Canadian pondweed growth resumes | Chironomid (bloodworm) main emergence | 21d | 14 โ 30d |
| Marsh marigold flowering | Tadpole emergence from spawn | 14d | 7 โ 21d |
| Swifts arrive | Mayfly main hatch | 21d | 14 โ 30d |
| Blackberries ripe | Crane fly / daddy-long-legs | 14d | 7 โ 28d |
| Blackthorn blossom | Hawthorn (May) blossom | 28d | 21 โ 40d |
| Cherry plum blossom | Phantom midge | 10d | 5 โ 18d |
| Common comfrey flowering | Damselfly emergence (mixed spp.) | 0d | -7 โ 14d |
| Conkers fall | Brown trout spawning | 28d | 14 โ 45d |
| Daffodil flowering | Canadian pondweed growth resumes | 14d | 7 โ 21d |
| Elder flower | Damselfly emergence (mixed spp.) | 0d | -7 โ 14d |
| Foxglove flowering | Caenis 'angler's curse' | 7d | 0 โ 21d |
| Hawthorn (May) blossom | Hawthorn fly | 0d | -3 โ 7d |
| Hawthorn (May) blossom | Mayfly main hatch | 21d | 14 โ 35d |
| Snowdrop flowering | Frog spawn | 21d | 14 โ 35d |